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New Home Sales Skyrocket, But It"s Unsustainable and Here"s Why
9/27/2022 4:27 PM
The monthly New Home Sales data from the Census Bureau is usually just "there"--one of several monthly housing-related reports that makes no promises about being interesting or saying anything very different from the other housing reports.  Today"s release of sales in August was different.  It showed a staggering 28.8% increase from the ...Read More
Beware The False Hope in MBS Today
9/27/2022 3:19 PM
Beware The False Hope in MBS Today MBS ended up with a nice little rally after 2pm that brought prices 3/8ths higher.  Treasuries, on the other hand, set new long-term yield highs today.  The latter is where we would continue to look for general guidance on rate trends.  That"s not to say 10s...Read More
Home Prices Drop 0.6%, Raising Questions About Loan Limit Change
9/27/2022 2:33 PM
Today brought the release of the two biggest home price indices (HPIs) for the month of July from S&P Case-Shiller and FHFA.  Both HPIs showed a marked deceleration in home price appreciation in June with Case Shiller up only 0.2% and FHFA up 0.1%.  Both moved into negative territory in July with Case Shiller down 0.4% and FHFA down 0...Read More
Yes, Mortgage Rates Are Now Over 7%, But It"s Complicated
9/27/2022 12:49 PM
It"s no mystery that mortgage rates have been moving relentlessly higher in 2022. But how high is high?  That will depend on a number of factors, including: The date and time of day of the quote (things change quickly) The  lender in question (different lenders have slightly different pricing and can have vastly different quoting pra...Read More
Jurassic Park: MBS Edition
9/27/2022 11:19 AM
While there"s no way to know exactly when it will happen, there"s always some point at the end of an epic sell-off where prices have dropped enough to attract buyers and sellers have had their fill.  A technician might simply say bonds were so oversold that they couldn"t sell anymore, but such conclusions are typically made in hindsight. ...Read More
Processing, TPO, Co-op, Subservicing, Home Ownership Products; Q&A on Rates Yesterday
9/27/2022 9:17 AM
Yesterday, before the yield on the risk-free U.S. 2-year note rose to 4.25 percent, I mentioned my cat Myrtle being offered a big signing bonus by the family next door because word of her mousing prowess has spread. Myrtle’s tight-lipped on the details (which are assumed to involve plentiful halibut and wild salmon) but it did result in contemplati...Read More
Mortgage Rates Now at 20-Year Highs
9/26/2022 3:52 PM
The most recent historical high water market for mortgage rates was "14 years."  It was broken so many times in September that we officially declared it to be boring last Tuesday.  Now, less than a week later, 14-year highs would be more exciting than boring.  As of mid-day today, we"re officially at 20 year highs. Perhaps it should...Read More
Why do US Rates Suddenly Care About The UK?
9/26/2022 3:23 PM
Why do US Rates Suddenly Care About The UK? If you"re just getting caught up, UK fiscal policy is probably at the center of the last few days of rate volatility.  UK market fallout added to US rate drama today, but why is this suddenly a thing?  First off, there is almost always some spillover fro...Read More
No Reprieve For Selling Spree Yet, But More Resilience vs EU
9/26/2022 10:36 AM
After a glimmer of hope at the end of last week, bonds are back to their old tricks.  Actually, they only have one trick recently: selling-off at a faster pace than expected.  A far more massive sell-off in UK bond markets continues to be a thorn in the side for US bonds.  This is one of the only redeeming factors actually: the fact ...Read More
DPA, Correspondent, Fulfillment, Marketing Products; STRATMOR and Customer Experience; IMB Merger
9/26/2022 8:18 AM
The big news in the Chrisman household is my cat Myrtle being offered a big signing bonus by the family next door. Apparently, word of her mousing prowess has spread. Myrtle’s tight-lipped on the details, but I assume it involves line-caught halibut and wild salmon tidbits. When I brought it up, she glared at me as if to say, “Hey, it’s a free mark...Read More

Small Business Stories from New York Times:
Silicon Valley Had Its Heyday. Can Tech Ecosystems Now Grow Inland?
9/24/2022 9:53 AM
The AOL co-founder Steve Case sees a need for entrepreneurial hubs beyond the coasts. “Let’s have it be a few dozen cities,” he says...Read More
Silicon Valley Slides Back Into ‘Bro’ Culture
9/24/2022 4:13 PM
Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg and Marc Andreessen show how the tech industry’s insular culture remains largely unchanged...Read More
Herbert Kohler, Plumbing Mogul Who Created a Golf Mecca, Dies at 83
9/17/2022 3:58 AM
The billionaire chief of a family company known for its bathtubs, toilets and faucets, he brought championship play to a tiny Wisconsin town...Read More
A $100 Million Bet on Finding the Next ‘Mr. Beast’
9/13/2022 4:00 AM
Reed Duchscher, the manager of the YouTube megastar “Mr. Beast,” is teaming up with the investment firm TCG to bankroll businesses led by online creators...Read More
Twilight of Entrepreneurs in China as More Leave the Country
9/8/2022 6:58 PM
Two of China’s best-known entrepreneurs, Pan Shiyi and Zhang Xin, stepped down from their top jobs at the real estate development company they built...Read More

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